Imports of PET into Europe are on the rise - they doubled between 2021 and 2022, reaching 1.9 million tonnes. Industry groups have warned this could negatively impact future investment in new collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure in Europe.
In a new analysis commissioned by Eastman and Plastics Recycling Europe, Systemiq has identified over 100 plastic recycling installations outside Europe that are now registered for imports into Europe.
Over half of these registrations are in non-OECD countries, where the export of plastic waste from the EU will be prohibited from 2026. This means that in the future any recycled PET imported from non-OECD countries would not be from EU PET waste and so the EU would be using other countries’ waste to meet targets, the report explains. A mapping of the installations shows 14 in India, 12 in Turkey, 9 in China, 9 in South Korea, 7 in Australia, 6 in Japan, a total of 9 in Africa, 9 in the Middle East, and 16 in Southern, Southeast, and East Asia.
Systemiq then presented two scenarios to illustrate the potential implications if recycled PET imports were to (1) stall or (2) slow down future investments in European recycling systems. The scenarios compare with the ‘Ambitious Complementarity Scenario by 2040’ the consultancy drew in a previous report. That scenario estimated that Europe would achieve a 67% PET/polyester recycling rate by 2040. However, whilst it considered exports of polyester textiles for reuse outside Europe, it did not model imports of recycled PET into Europe or exports of PET packaging waste.
The (1) stall scenario shows that Europe’s recycling rate would drop to 32%, which would generate 5.2 million tonnes/year of non-recycled waste (vs 2.5 million tonnes/year in the original scenario) and produce 8.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent/year (vs. 3.7 million tonnes/year).
The (2) slow down scenario would see Europe’s recycling rate drop to 38%, which would generate 4.7 million tonnes/year of non-recycled waste and 7.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Both scenarios are estimated to create up to 11,000 fewer jobs overall in the PET value chain in Europe in 2040.
“This analysis shows that whilst recycled content targets could still be met through imports of non-European recycled PET if this trend continues, recycling rate targets for plastic packaging [as set out in the PPWR] may not be met for PET packaging (34-50% in 2030 vs target of 55% by 2040),” the report reads. Moreover, European end-of-life greenhouse gas emissions could more than double as more PET/polyester reaches waste-to-energy incinerators instead of recyclers.
The issue brief also highlights potential environmental impacts of increased recycled PET imports on exporting countries, where waste mismanagement is more prevalent, and the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the electricity grid is usually higher. However, the report noted that more research is needed to fully understand the full impact of this system change, including analysis of marginal costs of production and transportation for imported rPET compared to locally produced material.