The Netherlands will fail to meet its goal to produce all plastic packaging from recycled or renewable materials by 2050 without changes to policy, industry, and consumers,
That is the conclusion of a new study by TNO, RIVM, Utrecht University, and Rijkswaterstaat, led by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
Currently only around 7% of plastic packaging in the Netherlands contains recycled content. The Dutch government’s 100% recycled/renewable content target is higher than that in the PPWR, which sets 65% recycled content for SUP beverage bottles, 50% for PET contact-sensitive packaging and 65% for other packaging.
The report is the most comprehensive analysis of the environmental impact of plastic packaging in the Netherlands to date. It is the first time the country's institutions conduct a systematic life cycle analysis that distinguishes between different types of packaging: beverage cartons, (contact sensitive) bottles, (contact sensitive) flexibles, and (contact sensitive) rigids.
TNO, the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research, analysed packaging trends and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions for the current and future Dutch plastic packaging system. It analysed two scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario (reflecting historical consumption patterns in relation to gross domestic product and population trends) and a circular scenario (as optimistic as possible within current capabilities).
Results show that without changes in consumption and waste management, the Dutch packaging system would see material losses of 279,000 tonnes in 2050, or 55% of all packaging put on market that year. That would result in a 12% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, reaching 190,6000 tonnes.
Under the business-as-usual scenario, the demand for plastic packaging could increase by 17%, from 386,000 in 2022 to 451,000 in 2050.
In a circular scenario and with the use of renewable energy sources, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 62%, and the need for new materials could decrease by 67%.
Circular strategies
TNO has quantified the impact of four circular strategies in reducing primary material use: reduction (a combination of refuse and reduce), life extension, material substitution, and high-quality recycling.
High-quality recycling and reduction promise the most significant reductions, followed by reuse and material substitution. The effectiveness of these circular strategies varies across different packaging types, ranging from 42% for contact-sensitive flexibles to 98% for non-contact-sensitive rigids.
High-quality recycling has the most impact, with 39% total avoided primary material demand. It is the highest for non-contact-sensitive bottles (76%), closely followed by contact-sensitive bottles and non-contact-sensitive rigids with 73% and 70%, respectively.
Reuse only avoids 19% primary material in total but is the most effective strategy for contact-sensitive bottles (84%). Material substitution has the lowest total avoided primary material demand (13%) but has a very high potential for beverage cartons (50%).
All strategies combined still fall short of the Dutch government’s goal to avoid 100% of new primary material by 2050.
Additional policies needed
TNO analysis shows that, by 2050, there would still be a demand for 149,000 tonnes of primary plastics for consumer packaging, mainly required for flexible packaging and contact-sensitive applications.
Additional policies are required to achieve a fossil-free packaging system by 2050, the TNO concluded. It said the focus should be on the use of alternative raw materials, such as biomass or CO2 from carbon capture, and on further reducing the demand for packaging.