Getting to net zero in Norway

A new study analysing the Norwegian plastics system says a major portion of the country’s circularity and net zero emissions goals are achievable by 2040, but that this will require ‘ambitious policies, innovation, capital investment, cross value-chain collaboration, consumer engagement and labour force reskilling’.
The study, entitled ‘Achieving Circularity’, is the most comprehensive undertaken to date of a national plastics system.

Conducted by Systemiq, in partnership with Handelens Miljøfond (Norwegian Retailers’ Environment Fund) and consultancy Mepex, with input from 16 international experts, the report is a synthesis of the two previous studies: “Achieving Circularity for Single-Use Plastics” and “Achieving Circularity for Durable Plastics”. The former focuses on consumable applications of plastics in packaging and household goods of a single-use nature with lifetimes of less than a year. The latter looks at durable plastics in five different sectors. Together, these studies address the seven sectors that currently cover some 80% of Norwegian plastic consumption.

The present report explores what levels of circularity and greenhouse gas emissions abatement could realistically be reached by the Norwegian plastic system by 2040 and how these can be achieved. Its main findings were the following:

• Only 22% of plastic across these seven sectors is reused or recycled. Right now, the plastics system relies for 90% on fossil-based plastic manufacturing processes; 70% of plastic is incinerated. It represents some 7% of Norway’s GHG emissions.
• Norway’s current policy and industry commitments are inadequate for transforming the Norwegian plastic system in a way that aligns with the goals of the European Green Deal, or the Paris and Glasgow climate agreements.
• Circularity can be boosted from 22% in 2020 to 70% by 2040 through the ambitious adoption of circular economy approaches in the plastics value chain, such as elimination, reduction and reuse, substitution, and mechanical and chemical recycling. Waste disposal can be decreased by ~35%.
• Circularity approaches alone will not be sufficient to meet Norway’s climate target; these can only reduce GHG emissions by one-third, i.e. from around 2.8 million tonnes in 2020 to 1.9 million tonnes of CO2eq emissions by 2040. Further reductions may be realised through measures such as using alternative carbon feedstocks and capturing residual emissions, which could achieve a 75% reduction in GHG emissions by 2040 relative to 2020  - and decouple plastic from fossil fuel feedstocks.
• Circularity and net zero pathways are achievable within existing solutions, and the cost is not prohibitive. The report finds that an additional investment of $54m (570m NOK) every year for 20 years would be required. The transformation could create around 1,300 additional jobs compared to 2020 -  but reskilling will be essential.

“Norway aims to continue to be a frontrunner on addressing the global plastic pollution challenge, and – together with Rwanda – is leading the High Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution,”said Cecilie Lind, general manager, Handelens Miljøfond.
“This study lays out a pathway for Norway’s own transition towards a low-emissions, zero-waste circular plastic economy and reduce the yearly Norwegian per capita plastic disposal from around 73 kg in 2020 to around 41 kg per year in 2040. “

Following this pathway means that Norway will not have reached its 2030 climate targets by the year 2040. However, as the authors of the report point out: ’it sets the system on track to achieving net-zero by mid-century, in line with Norway’s 2050 climate goal.

In addition, even with the ambitious circularity interventions proposed, overall, approximately only 70% of circularity will be achieved by 2040 - if these are followed through. These interventions go beyond simply reusing and recycling plastic; they require the fundamental “rethinking” of the uses of plastic through new business models and dematerialisation.

Note that not all the sectors analysed will achieve the same level of circularity as each will rely on the different circularity interventions to varying degrees and will experience different levels of impact. Consumable applications are limited to circularity levels of up to 69% by 2040, largely due to the single-use, disposable nature of many plastics and the prevalent throwaway culture. Durable applications, by contrast, could achieve circularity levels of up to 87%.

Ultimately, this is only feasible with a collaborative, systemic, cross-sector approach to ensure interventions are prioritised, incentivised and championed most effectively to balance upstream circularity, downstream circularity, and supply-side abatement.

“The global treaty on plastic pollution offers a unique chance to shift towards a circular and low-emissions plastic economy. This study offers evidence-based recommendations on priority areas for a highly developed country’s plastic system. It shows that GHG emissions can be cut by 75% and waste disposal by 35% by 2040 in a way that is both affordable and achievable within technical constraints,” said Yoni Shiran, partner and plastics lead at Systemiq.

This transition requires an ambitious combination of both upstream and downstream solutions, and it will require leadership and collaboration across industry, public sector, investors, and civil society. Only then can we seize this opportunity to shift to the low-emissions circular plastic systems Norway – and the world – needs.”

‘Achieving Circularity’ is available here.