Plastics Europe has launched its “Plastics Transition” roadmap, marking the first time its members united around a ‘hugely ambitious but realist plan to redesign the European plastics system’, the managing director of Plastics Europe, Virginia Janssens, said during a press briefing.
The roadmap provides a framework, milestones for 2030, and indicators to monitor progress, identify bottlenecks, and find solutions to keep moving forward.
In terms of circularity, the roadmap projects that the substitution of fossil-based plastics will be gradual and could reach 25% in 2030 and 65% by 2050. Plastics Europe predicts that 15 million tonnes of those circular plastics will be mechanically recycled by 2050, followed by 12 million tonnes of chemically recycled polymers, 11 million tonnes of bioplastics, and 3 million tonnes of carbon capture-based plastics. The remaining 22 million tonnes, or 35%, will be fossil-based plastics. The industry body estimates that reuse will reduce plastics consumption by 12 million tonnes by 2050.
Chemical recycling is expected to have its breakthrough by 2030, accounting for 3 million tonnes, and growing exponentially from there towards 2050. Operating the technology will likely remain more expensive than mechanic recycling, however, which will reach estimated operating costs (opex) of €1,056 and €762 per tonne produced by 2050, respectively, according to analysis by Deloitte. Opex costs for chemical recycling are estimated to decline rapidly from 2030, starting at €2,460 per tonne in 2021, dropping to €1,796 in 2030, to €1,426 in 2040, and reaching €1,056 in 2050.
Bioplastics are also expected to see sharp operating cost declines, from €2,839 per tonne in 2021, to €2,361 in 2030, to €1,884 in 2040, and reaching €1,403 by 2050. Captured carbon-based plastics will remain the most expensive technology to operate throughout the 2021-2050 period, starting at €3,029 per tonne and ending at €2,007.
Fossil-fuel plastics will see modest operating costs declines, starting at €1,395 per tonne in 2021 and ending at €1,186 by 2050. That means both mechanically and chemical recycled plastics will be cheaper than virgin fossil production by 2050, with bioplastics becoming cost competitive.
Significant short- and medium-term investments will be needed to achieve this cost decline, according to Plastics Europe, flagging the need for policy support in transforming the industry and infrastructure. Supporting the development of all recycling technologies, to ensure maximum availability of circular feedstock, will be key in unlocking investments, according to Plastics Europe. The industry body also called for an urgent recognition of the mass balance, fuel exempt, allocation model for plastic waste-based feedstocks.
In particular, the additional capex and opex, or total system cost, needed to reach 65% circularity and net-zero would require an additional €235 billion, compared to the baseline scenario cost. The total system cost would be €3,527 billion for the circular and net zero scenario, €3,032 billion for the circular scenario, and €3,292 billion for the baseline scenario, according to Deloitte analysis. The projected, additional average system cost per tonne of plastics is €290 in the circular-plus-net-zero scenario.
“We are excited about the opportunity the Green Deal provides to create a thriving and competitive European plastics industry that allows us to increase investment and innovation in circularity and decarbonisation,” said Marco ten Bruggencate, President of Plastics Europe, and Dow EMEA commercial vice president packaging and specialty plastics. “However, to enable the transition we will need measures to safeguard the competitiveness of our industry if we are to prevent industrial activity and investments migrating out of Europe to other regions, and to avoid becoming increasingly dependent on imports of plastics which do not necessarily meet EU sustainability standards.”
Bruggencate pointed out during a press briefing that during the 1980s Europe concentrated 33% of plastics production, a value which has plummeted to 14% in 2022, according to Plastics Europe data. The roadmap says there is an urgent need to create a level playing field and regain European competitiveness, including by funding a European circular plastics economy/transition; designing regulation to reinvigorate the European plastics industry; and ensuring competitive energy prices and making renewable energy and hydrogen accessible and affordable.
Plastics Europe believes the roadmap will make a very important contribution to informing and promoting dialogue and collaboration with policy makers and the value chain.
Based on aggregated results from a survey of Plastics Europe’s members, the industry’s progress against these indicators for circularity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be assessed and transparently reported to monitor progress, alongside any identified bottlenecks or accelerators, every two years.
“The wider European plastics system is too big, complex, and interconnected for any part of it to successfully deliver a circular and net zero system alone,” said Rob Ingram, Plastics Europe steering board roadmap task force lead and CEO, INEOS olefins & polymers Europe. “We need to find better ways of listening, talking, and deepening our collaboration. The roadmap should be viewed as an invitation to challenge our thinking and identify the areas where we can join forces and progress faster together,” he concluded.
Zero Waste Europe has shared its reactions to the roadmap with Sustainable Plastics. Janek Vähk, Zero Pollution policy manager said: "In a stark contradiction to the urgent need for sustainability, the Plastics Europe roadmap for Plastics in Europe advocates for the unabated expansion of plastic production and a continued reliance on fossil-based plastics (1/3 of the production). Our latest research on carbon budgets available for materials reveals a stark reality: to align with these budgets, the demand for plastics cannot grow. Instead, we must pivot towards a future where plastic consumption decreases by 3% each year, ultimately halving annual consumption by 2050. The majority of this transition should be achieved through the elimination of unnecessary plastics and a steady fast move towards a thriving reuse economy."
Lauriane Veillard, policy officer for chemical recycling and plastic-to-fuels at the association, said the roadmap's treatment of sustainable plastics goes in the 'right direction' but falls short in terms of content. "When defining action for the future, it is crucial to act according to the principle that preventive action, from the outset, should take priority to avoid any exposure to harmful chemicals," Veillard said. "This is key now more than ever as scientists recently declared that chemical pollution has passed the safe limit for humanity, and that harmful chemicals above safe limits are being detected in the EU population."
*This article was updated on 26/10/2023 to include reaction statements from Zero Waste Europe