1. What market share do you see bioplastics having by 2040?
That sounds far but it's actually just around the corner. I think the transition will accelerate and will gain momentum and I think this will bring us to around 10% to 15% of all plastics being bioplastics. I think the majority of that, maybe 80%, will be bio-based bioplastics and maybe 20% would be biodegradable materials. I also think a large part of plastics at that moment in time will be recyclable plastics or recycled plastics, maybe something like 40%. I believe the recycling industry is also going to recycle bio-based plastics, they will go through the same rigorous recycling effort.
2. What makes a bioplastics plant worthy of investment in Asia but not in Europe, for example?
Companies investing in bioplastics today do it because they want to make this a better planet for future generations. Companies on the leading edge of this transition believe they will benefit from it later. What this also means is that quite a few of the investments which have been done in the past, were not done with the best economic return. As we accelerate into this transition, we will see that Investments will be much more driven by a solid return for investors. And of course, there as with all investments, companies will look at those countries where raw materials are cheap, for bio-based plastics that’s sugar or corn or wheat. They will look at areas where energy is cheap because in any case you need energy and a bit of labour to make the transformation into bioplastics. They will look at countries or regions providing certain tax benefits or other incentives to speed up this transition.
3. Investments in bioplastics in Europe are still minimal in Europe compared with the US, for example. Do you see that changing anytime soon?
It seems like in Europe there's a debate with a thousand different people with slightly different nuanced opinions. As a result, there is a lot of inertia, things become a bit static, things don’t move forward. if you look at countries like China, like Thailand, or like the US there is much more clarity. In Europe, the train wants to leave the station, but some people are pushing it to the west and some are pushing it to the east and in the end the train does not leave the station.
4. How important do you think LCAs will become in product choice in the coming years?
I actually believe that the LCA tool and its output is highly overrated and is very often even used to just frustrate the discussion and enter into a more technical debate on ‘where is the cradle’ and ‘where is the gate?’, ‘how do we deal with biogenic content?’, etc. I'm more of a fan of a more straightforward and simple approach. We need to move away from fossil fuel because fossil fuels are finite and we know that if you use fossil fuels it will result in more CO2 emissions into the sky. If you use biopolymers, it will result in more CO2 captured from the sky to make our products. These simple arguments are and should be sufficient to choose a biobased economy. Another very important aspect that is completely ignored from current LCA analysis is waste and pollution. Product applications which produce more waste don't get a penalty in a LCA analysis, and biodegradable plastic doesn’t get any benefit or credit. The LCA analysis should be used again for what it was developed: to compare different production processes, to help further optimise the production chain in a plant: minimise carbon footprint, water and energy energy uses. I think that's where the true value of LCA analysis is. I don't think there is so much there for consumers or for brands speaking to consumers.
5. If you had to pick one sustainability trend that will drop off the agenda by 2030, what would it be?
If one considers LCAs as a trend, I think their value will reduce. We will learn to do the right thing for our planet without hiding behind the numbers of eutrophication potential and indirect land use. We will understand that going bio-based, living in harmony with nature and our planet, is a better thing to do than pump oil and emit CO2 into the atmosphere.
Other than that, I think we will continue to focus on land use so that there is no chopping down of rainforests to grow more bioplastic crops. I don't think we will stop focusing on CO2 emissions. I don't think we will stop focusing on transitioning into a bio-based economy and I don't think we will stop focusing on reducing litter by either improving recycling or by improving and using more biodegradable plastics.